All for one or one for all?
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I would like to return to the Scenario planning method, which found a lot of literature and one which can be documented (see http://www.amazon.com/tag/scenario%20planning/products/ref=tag_dpp_lp_is...).
"The ultimate purpose of the scenario planner is to create a more adaptable organisation, wich first recognises change and uncertainty, and second uses it creatively to its advantage” Kees van der Heijden
For example, the port of Veracruz, Mexico (where I live) in 15 years will have a different economic activity, today universities should display curricula for new careers that allow them to anticipate the future in the medium term. The old practice of creating races that emerge urgently to suit current needs have to be left behind. The message is to change careers creation scheme, rather than solve a problem through them, all universities should design those careers for the future conditions.
In short, I believe that with regard to future methods there is no method better than another, but complementary methods to suit or adapt to the needs. The success I believe, would lie in implementing a portfolio of methods according to the skills of those running this design in the future.
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I agree, complementary methods would be the ideal and necessary way to take. The problem in a country like Mexico, is that no matter how much information we count on, or how many sources we employ, decision making seams to be ruled by other factors: corruption, favoritism, visceral actions, etc.
So, if we commited to research actions and employed any or a combination of the methods studied (and some other well known) I am sure we would succed, as I have no doubts there are enough experts to do so, following excellent steps to do it. This would allow government and authorities to count on enough information and options to take their own assertive decisions.
The problem is that the system is so corrupt and dark that at the end decisions (taken in a short term) are assumed to benefit a few, to steal all kinds of resources, to take the best advantage while it is possible and to perpetuate power at some individuals convenience. And this happens at all levels, education included.
Laura Herrera Corona
Educational Technology Department
Christopher Columbus University
Veracruz, Mexico
Tel. +52 22 99 23 29 50 to 54 ext. 1109