Seven Days Left - Looking deeper into scenarios for futures thinking
Well...
We've got three scenarios running and could easily use a couple more. If you've been thinking about it or are just coming into the game, check out the last couple of newsletters for instructions.
I'd like to talk a bit more about WHY we are using scenarios. I really want to emphasise that the point of the scenarios are NOT to try and predict the future. It is not, either, a question of trying to find a future that you LIKE and PREFER. The idea is to take an idea and try to follow it out to its own logical conclusion regardless of whether you like the conclusions or not. Let me try and example
Lets assume that our trends have led to the idea that education is increasingly turning towards being user/student centered and that the student is going to have an increasingly large impact on how the schools are run. What are some of the impacts...
Overcomplexity of the 'learning styles' to get to the point that every individual student needs to be addressed. Maybe grade inflation. Maybe increased creativity. Maybe decentralization of the professor... or, maybe, more standardization in the curriculum so that the choice is more obvious for the student.
Some of these might appear 'good' or 'bad' to you. This is not relevant. We are trying to follow ideas along, match them up with other trends in order to try and imagine where certain ideas may lead us. We, in some ways, might over-emphasize things in order to try and understand them more clearly.
The outputs that come from a scenario plan need not be thought of as a direct call to action. We take the scenario COMPARE IT with others and look for patters amongst ALL of the scenarios.
How does that sound?
A comment in defense of Futures against predictions...
http://twitter.com/davecormier/statuses/15350834584
And a couple more scenarios that are building.
http://twitter.com/davecormier/statuses/15350783579
jump in. help out.
